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Inbox: Immofinanz: RCB sieht keinen Grund für ein Re-Rating und bleibt auf Reduce


CA Immo
Akt. Indikation:  30.02 / 30.32
Uhrzeit:  13:03:50
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.03%
Letzter SK:  30.16 ( 0.20%)

Immofinanz
Akt. Indikation:  23.80 / 23.95
Uhrzeit:  13:03:50
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.10%
Letzter SK:  23.85 ( 0.00%)

12.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

IMMOFINANZ confirmed at REDUCE, TP EUR 2.00 - Restart of merger discussions with CA Immo

- RCB earnings estimates and NAV forecasts are broadly unchanged
- Profitability of the group remains very low despite the sale of Russia
- We see the values of EMPARK Business Park in Warsaw at risk
- IMMOFINANZ trades at very demanding valuation multiples based on RCBe

3Q 17 results were mixed and showed the very slim profitability of IMMOFINANZ despite the significant reduction of vacancy rates, the painful sale of the Russian business and employee cost savings. Following the closing of the sale of the Russian portfolio the management is likely to resume discussions about a potential merger with CA Immo and we reckon that the prospective synergies and the share exchange ratio could be announced on April 4, 2018e at the earliest. Meanwhile, we keep our rating at REDUCE for IMMOFINANZ with an unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 due to broadly unchanged estimates and very demanding valuation multiples.
 
Fair or unfair property values: On December 7, 2017, IMMOFINANZ closed the sale (share deal) of the entire retail portfolio in Moscow to the Russian FORT Group. The implied disposal price for the gross assets amounts to EUR 750 mn, which is a massive EUR 226 mn below the fair value of the property assets in 2Q 17 and that was disappointing. Assets of EUR 150.2 mn for the Polish EMPARK Mokotow Business Park were classified as a disposal group in April 2016. In 3Q 17 the management now de-facto admits that only one out of a total of nine buildings can realistically be sold at fair value. We see a risk that either the values of this particular asset are overstated or significant investments are necessary in order to upgrade it.
 
Weak profitability: The adjusted EBITDA margin (excl. results of property sales) was up sequentially to 38.9% in 3Q 17 but that is very weak in comparison to Austrian peers. We think the current level of the adj. EBITDA margin at IMMOFINANZ is low although the vacancy rate of the portfolio improved from 15.8% in 2014/15 to 7.1% in 3Q 17, the Russian portfolio has been sold and the group realised employee cost savings. Recurring earnings (FFO I) of EUR 3.5 mn were in positive territory but still very low3Q 17. Adding one quarter of annual dividend payments received (EUR 5.3 mn) would lead to EUR 8.8 mn of recurring earnings in 3Q 17, which implies an annualised return on EPRA NAV of 1%, which we think is still meagre. Using our FFO I estimate of EUR 96 mn for 2019e the RoNAV is still below 3%.
 
Demanding valuation: Our unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 is based on the average of DCF and RoNAV valuation methods as shown in more detail later in this report. In terms of P/FFO 2018e the group trades at 31.0x, which is far ahead of the peers average and in terms of EV/EBITDA 2018e IMMOFINANZ is also trading at a significant premium of 27.9x against a peers average of 21.3x. Given the current poor profitability excluding Russia and despite the expected improvement of earnings until 2019e we see no reason for further re-rating of the stock.
       

Companies im Artikel

CA Immo

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Immobilien
Show latest Report (09.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der CA Immo-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Immofinanz

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Immobilien
Show latest Report (09.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Immofinanz-Aktien sorgen die Wood & Company Financial Services als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Société Générale S.A. und Tower Research Capital, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Immofinanz - VIVO! Krosno Opening - (Fotocredit: Immofinanz) © Aussendung



Aktien auf dem Radar:Österreichische Post, FACC, Austriacard Holdings AG, Flughafen Wien, S Immo, Addiko Bank, Andritz, Rosenbauer, SBO, OMV, ams-Osram, AT&S, Gurktaler AG VZ, Polytec Group, Wiener Privatbank, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Amag, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Kapsch TrafficCom, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger, Beiersdorf, Brenntag, Siemens.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: Immofinanz: RCB sieht keinen Grund für ein Re-Rating und bleibt auf Reduce


    12.12.2017, 5032 Zeichen

    12.12.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    IMMOFINANZ confirmed at REDUCE, TP EUR 2.00 - Restart of merger discussions with CA Immo

    - RCB earnings estimates and NAV forecasts are broadly unchanged
    - Profitability of the group remains very low despite the sale of Russia
    - We see the values of EMPARK Business Park in Warsaw at risk
    - IMMOFINANZ trades at very demanding valuation multiples based on RCBe

    3Q 17 results were mixed and showed the very slim profitability of IMMOFINANZ despite the significant reduction of vacancy rates, the painful sale of the Russian business and employee cost savings. Following the closing of the sale of the Russian portfolio the management is likely to resume discussions about a potential merger with CA Immo and we reckon that the prospective synergies and the share exchange ratio could be announced on April 4, 2018e at the earliest. Meanwhile, we keep our rating at REDUCE for IMMOFINANZ with an unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 due to broadly unchanged estimates and very demanding valuation multiples.
     
    Fair or unfair property values: On December 7, 2017, IMMOFINANZ closed the sale (share deal) of the entire retail portfolio in Moscow to the Russian FORT Group. The implied disposal price for the gross assets amounts to EUR 750 mn, which is a massive EUR 226 mn below the fair value of the property assets in 2Q 17 and that was disappointing. Assets of EUR 150.2 mn for the Polish EMPARK Mokotow Business Park were classified as a disposal group in April 2016. In 3Q 17 the management now de-facto admits that only one out of a total of nine buildings can realistically be sold at fair value. We see a risk that either the values of this particular asset are overstated or significant investments are necessary in order to upgrade it.
     
    Weak profitability: The adjusted EBITDA margin (excl. results of property sales) was up sequentially to 38.9% in 3Q 17 but that is very weak in comparison to Austrian peers. We think the current level of the adj. EBITDA margin at IMMOFINANZ is low although the vacancy rate of the portfolio improved from 15.8% in 2014/15 to 7.1% in 3Q 17, the Russian portfolio has been sold and the group realised employee cost savings. Recurring earnings (FFO I) of EUR 3.5 mn were in positive territory but still very low3Q 17. Adding one quarter of annual dividend payments received (EUR 5.3 mn) would lead to EUR 8.8 mn of recurring earnings in 3Q 17, which implies an annualised return on EPRA NAV of 1%, which we think is still meagre. Using our FFO I estimate of EUR 96 mn for 2019e the RoNAV is still below 3%.
     
    Demanding valuation: Our unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 is based on the average of DCF and RoNAV valuation methods as shown in more detail later in this report. In terms of P/FFO 2018e the group trades at 31.0x, which is far ahead of the peers average and in terms of EV/EBITDA 2018e IMMOFINANZ is also trading at a significant premium of 27.9x against a peers average of 21.3x. Given the current poor profitability excluding Russia and despite the expected improvement of earnings until 2019e we see no reason for further re-rating of the stock.
           

    Companies im Artikel

    CA Immo

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Immobilien
    Show latest Report (09.12.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der CA Immo-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Immofinanz

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Immobilien
    Show latest Report (09.12.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Immofinanz-Aktien sorgen die Wood & Company Financial Services als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Société Générale S.A. und Tower Research Capital, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Immofinanz - VIVO! Krosno Opening - (Fotocredit: Immofinanz) © Aussendung





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    CA Immo
    Akt. Indikation:  30.02 / 30.32
    Uhrzeit:  13:03:50
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.03%
    Letzter SK:  30.16 ( 0.20%)

    Immofinanz
    Akt. Indikation:  23.80 / 23.95
    Uhrzeit:  13:03:50
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.10%
    Letzter SK:  23.85 ( 0.00%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Immofinanz - VIVO! Krosno Opening - (Fotocredit: Immofinanz) , (© Aussendung)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Österreichische Post, FACC, Austriacard Holdings AG, Flughafen Wien, S Immo, Addiko Bank, Andritz, Rosenbauer, SBO, OMV, ams-Osram, AT&S, Gurktaler AG VZ, Polytec Group, Wiener Privatbank, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Amag, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Kapsch TrafficCom, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger, Beiersdorf, Brenntag, Siemens.


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    Marinomed
    Erforscht und entwickelt völlig neuartige Technologieplattformen, die innovative Therapien gegen Atemwegs- und Augenerkrankungen ermöglichen. Aus wissenschaftlichen Ideen werden so neue Patente, Marken und Produkte geschaffen.

    >> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


    Immofinanz - VIVO! Krosno Opening - (Fotocredit: Immofinanz), (© Aussendung)


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